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  <head>
    <title>cmdln.net_2007-10-03</title>
    <expansionState>0,1,8,10,11,24,34,50,51,56,65,76,88,89,97</expansionState>
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    <outline text="Intro" Offset="00:17">
      <outline text="Promo!" Offset="01:57">
        <outline text="Thanks to SusanZ and Biscuit from the Kulture Kast"/>
        <outline text="http://kulturekast.com/"/>
        <outline text="AIF and high quality MP3 versions are available"/>
        <outline text="http://media.libsyn.com/media/cmdln/tclp_promo_kulture.aif"/>
        <outline text="http://media.libsyn.com/media/cmdln/tclp_promo_kulture.mp3"/>
        <outline text="The linked versions have no bed music, feel free to remix as you like!"/>
      </outline>
    </outline>
    <outline text="Word of the Week: content-free" Offset="03:07">
      <outline text="http://www.catb.org/jargon/html/C/content-free.html"/>
    </outline>
    <outline text="Rant: Impending Bandwidth Crunch" Offset="04:12">
      <outline text="The problem">
        <outline text="http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070917/010343.shtml"/>
        <outline text="Bob Metcalfe, inventor of ethernet, first proposed the idea in 1995"/>
        <outline text="Coincides with opening of the internet to commercial, private use"/>
        <outline text="Predicted it would collapse the following year"/>
        <outline text="Instead, he recanted, literally ate his InfoWorld column"/>
        <outline text="Same idea has resurfaced repeatedly since"/>
        <outline text="Latest iteration is Phil Kerpen of Forbes based on Deloitte and Touch report"/>
        <outline text="Report mentions network neutrality obliquely"/>
        <outline text="Kerpen directly attributes neutrality with the problem"/>
        <outline text="Cites it as chilling back bone build out"/>
        <outline text="Argument is as specious as ever, competition problems have more to do with last mile"/>
        <outline text="Masnick correctly points out that if there is demand for more capacity, businesses will be developed to serve"/>
      </outline>
      <outline text="Dark fiber">
        <outline text="Masnick mentions it in reference to the first internet bubble"/>
        <outline text="In anticipation of demand, massive build out"/>
        <outline text="Demand never really materialized, so extra capacity went unused, presumably losing money"/>
        <outline text="According to Wikipedia, this is may actually be intentional"/>
        <outline text="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_fiber"/>
        <outline text="Real cost is rights of way for fiber"/>
        <outline text="May be cheaper to clear and build out whether fiber is laid in or not"/>
        <outline text="Wavelength-division multiplexing, a new technology, eroded demand by increasing capacity 100 fold on existing fiber"/>
        <outline text="Turned out to be a marketable asset after inevitable shakedown"/>
      </outline>
      <outline text="Failure modes of an edge-to edge network">
        <outline text="Not how power networks fail"/>
        <outline text="Mismatch of supply and demand causes electrical systems serious problems"/>
        <outline text="Failures can cascade"/>
        <outline text="For networks, under utilization just means idling, over means congestion, some are not served or all are served slowly"/>
        <outline text="Failures rarely cascade, filigree of network naturally spreads imbalance in loads"/>
        <outline text="Packet shaping is like power load distribution but incorrect shaping won't kill it"/>
        <outline text="Most disastrous problems are when hardware fails outright"/>
        <outline text="Replacement is usually straightforward"/>
        <outline text="Knock on effects are less severe than power loss"/>
        <outline text="Money interests using networks motivates quicker response"/>
        <outline text="Except for certain critical junctures like MAE East or West, network is fault tolerant"/>
        <outline text="Original design was meant to withstand a nuclear attack"/>
        <outline text="Worst case scenario, network would perhaps fragment, not melt down"/>
        <outline text="Before &quot;Internet&quot;, disparate networks worked OK, could work fine again"/>
        <outline text="Common sense understanding of broken water main, downed power line used to justify network discrimination"/>
      </outline>
      <outline text="Other fallacy in comparing internet to traditional utilities">
        <outline text="Unlike power, water, networks can be soft upgraded to carry more load">
          <outline text="Already mentioned WDM, two different techniques have been implemented, each yielding a bump on existing fiber"/>
          <outline text="Gerald Butter's postulated a law similar to Moore's law"/>
          <outline text="Fiber engineers seem to think increasing capacity of existing fiber is sustainable"/>
          <outline text="Water, electricity not so much"/>
        </outline>
        <outline text="Some free market advocates are suggesting metering to level usage, discourage over use">
          <outline text="Utility metering is regulated, bandwidth metering would also need to be regulated"/>
          <outline text="Otherwise, how do you know whether the meter is accurate?"/>
          <outline text="Isn't regulation inconsistent with most free market advocacy?"/>
          <outline text="How would regulating metering be practically different from measuring for and regulating discrimination?"/>
          <outline text="Besides, don't under utilizing customers subsidize more growth?"/>
          <outline text="ISPs have and enforce caps, but they don't enforce any idea of a floor"/>
          <outline text="I'd be willing to bet more subscribers pay for more unused bandwidth than completely saturate what they pay for"/>
          <outline text="Why would other services look to move toward flat rate price structures?"/>
        </outline>
        <outline text="What edge of utility innovation is there?">
          <outline text="Maybe you can argue that products manufactured with water, electric are innovations on top of"/>
          <outline text="Just doesn't seem the same as internet innovation where bandwidth is key"/>
          <outline text="Network innovation drives demand more than average user"/>
          <outline text="The real problem is carriers have a conflict of interest"/>
          <outline text="Instead of better serving data services to innovators, competing on price"/>
          <outline text="Carriers want a piece of services pie"/>
          <outline text="Tend to agree strongly with recommendation to de-laminate the carriers"/>
          <outline text="http://www.hyperorg.com/misc/delamination.html"/>
          <outline text="Carriers drag their feet because network improvements would benefit competitors, too"/>
          <outline text="Want more bandwidth but only for their own captive services"/>
        </outline>
      </outline>
      <outline text="This too will pass">
        <outline text="Regulations will be passed, or not"/>
        <outline text="If so, they may work well, or not"/>
        <outline text="If not, then carriers will be too snarled fighting to block competition"/>
        <outline text="Carriers would be criminally negligent if they truly let end users be under served"/>
        <outline text="It will find an equilibrium that preserves a certain amount of innovation"/>
        <outline text="Everyone enjoys their next killer app too much to see it go any other way"/>
        <outline text="Best we can do is try to steer regulation to be best, least intrusive"/>
        <outline text="Based on objective, empirical criteria coupled with real accountability"/>
        <outline text="I don't think letting carriers choose for themselves to be neutral or not is wise unless they are barred from offering services beyond data"/>
        <outline text="If they can do both, there will always be a conflict of interest"/>
        <outline text="Is this kind of hyperbole a last gasp of the carriers, reason for optimism?"/>
      </outline>
    </outline>
    <outline text="Outro" Offset="24:04">
      <outline text="Contact me">
        <outline text="Email to feedback@thecommandline.net"/>
        <outline text="Web site at http://thecommandline.net/"/>
        <outline text="IM to command.line@skype"/>
        <outline text="Listener comment line is 360-252-7284"/>
        <outline text="del.icio.us tag is &quot;for:cmdln&quot;"/>
        <outline text="http://twitter.com/cmdln"/>
      </outline>
      <outline text="I'd like to thank libsyn.com for AAC hosting and Wouter de Bie for MP3 hosting"/>
      <outline text="These notes and the show audio and music are covered by a Creative Commons license">
        <outline text="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/"/>
        <outline text="Attribution, non-commercial, share alike"/>
      </outline>
    </outline>
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